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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has become an acrimonious showdown, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the direction that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd