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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would serve as assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.