A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
